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We conducted an experiment to determine the reproductive biology of Erigeron speciosus (Asteraceae), a perennial montane herb that is widespread throughout Western North America. Pollination of E. speciosus was manipulated to understand the following questions: (1) What is the mating system for E. speciosus (outcrossing vs. selfing)? (2) Is E. speciosus self-incompatible? (3) Does pollen donor distance affect reproductive success? (4) Is reproductive success limited by pollen receipt (i.e., pollen limitation)? We compared seed set and seed viability among five pollination treatments: ambient pollination (control), pollinator exclusion (bagged capitula), self-pollination only, and two outcrossing treatments (near and far pollen donors). We found that E. speciosus is largely self-incompatible and depends on outcrossing for its reproduction. Despite this, reproduction was not pollen-limited at our study site. We also found some evidence that E. speciosus reproduction is susceptible to outbreeding depression. 

Open top chambers (OTCs) are a popular method for studying the biological effects of climate change through passive heating, but their effects on biotic interactions are poorly understood, especially for pollination. Here we use the subalpine plants Delphinium nuttallianum and Potentilla pulcherrima to examine the possibility that the effects of OTCs on plant reproduction are not the result of warming but rather OTCs acting as barriers to pollinator movement. Pollinator observations were conducted and stigmas collected from plants inside and outside of OTCs in a meadow in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado, USA. Very few visitors were observed inside of OTCs, which led to severe reductions in visitation rates, by 92% in Delphinium and 85% in Potentilla. The number of conspecific pollen grains on stigmas was 73% lower in OTCs for Delphinium but not Potentilla, likely because it is capable of autogamous self-pollination. This study clearly shows that OTCs can reduce animal pollination, which is also likely to reduce plant reproductive output of outcrossing plants via decreases in the quantity or quality of pollen. OTCs may therefore confound effects of warming on plant reproduction with pollination effects. Although the unintended effects of OTCs on abiotic conditions are well-studied, this study highlights that their effects on biotic interactions require further investigation. 

Abstract Understanding the effects of climate on the vital rates (e.g., survival, development, reproduction) and dynamics of natural populations is a long‐standing quest in ecology, with ever‐increasing relevance in the face of climate change. However, linking climate drivers to demographic processes requires identifying the appropriate time windows during which climate influences vital rates. Researchers often do not have access to the long‐term data required to test a large number of windows, and are thus forced to makea priorichoices. In this study, we first synthesize the literature to assess currenta priorichoices employed in studies performed on 104 plant species that link climate drivers with demographic responses. Second, we use a sliding‐window approach to investigate which combination of climate drivers and temporal window have the best predictive ability for vital rates of four perennial plant species that each have over a decade of demographic data (Helianthella quinquenervis,Frasera speciosa,Cylindriopuntia imbricata, andCryptantha flava). Our literature review shows that most studies consider time windows in only the year preceding the measurement of the vital rate(s) of interest, and focus on annual or growing season temporal scales. In contrast, our sliding‐window analysis shows that in only four out of 13 vital rates the selected climate drivers have time windows that align with, or are similar to, the growing season. For many vital rates, the best window lagged more than 1 year and up to 4 years before the measurement of the vital rate. Our results demonstrate that for the vital rates of these four species, climate drivers that are lagged or outside of the growing season are the norm. Our study suggests that considering climatic predictors that fall outside of the most recent growing season will improve our understanding of how climate affects population dynamics. 

Abstract Despite a global footprint of shifts in flowering phenology in response to climate change, the reproductive consequences of these shifts are poorly understood. Furthermore, it is unknown whether altered flowering times affect plant population viability.We examine whether climate change‐induced earlier flowering has consequences for population persistence by incorporating reproductive losses from frost damage (a risk of early flowering) into population models of a subalpine sunflower (Helianthella quinquenervis). Using long‐term demographic data for three populations that span the species’ elevation range (8–15 years, depending on the population), we first examine how snowmelt date affects plant vital rates. To verify vital rate responses to snowmelt date experimentally, we manipulate snowmelt date with a snow removal experiment at one population. Finally, we construct stochastic population projection models and Life Table Response Experiments for each population.We find that populations decline (λ_s < 1) as snowmelt dates become earlier. Frost damage to flower buds, a consequence of climate change‐induced earlier flowering, does not contribute strongly to population declines. Instead, we find evidence that negative effects on survival, likely due to increased drought risk during longer growing seasons, drive projected population declines under earlier snowmelt dates.Synthesis.Shifts in flowering phenology are a conspicuous and important aspect of biological responses to climate change, but here we show that the phenology of reproductive events can be unreliable measures of threats to population persistence, even when earlier flowering is associated with substantial reproductive losses. Evidence for shifts in reproductive phenology, along with scarcer evidence that these shifts actually influence reproductive success, are valuable but can paint an incomplete and even misleading picture of plant population responses to climate change.